Copper Billet Enterprises' Chinese New Year Break Arrangements and Post-Holiday Market Outlook [SMM Analysis]

》Check SMM Copper Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

》Click to View Historical Price Trends of SMM Spot Copper              

       As the statutory Chinese New Year holiday approaches, SMM has gathered information on the holiday arrangements of copper billet market enterprises. Below is a summary and analysis of the specific situation:

       I. Holiday Arrangements

       According to SMM, most enterprises in the copper billet market plan to take holidays between January 20 and January 24, with production gradually resuming on February 4 (the eighth day of the lunar new year). The holiday duration generally ranges from 10 to 16 days, which is basically consistent with last year. Among them, large enterprises have approximately six days fewer holidays compared to small and medium-sized enterprises.

       II. Market Orders and Post-Holiday Expectations

       Some large enterprises reported moderate order levels before the holiday. This is mainly attributed to the stocking demand from downstream enterprises and some downstream customers choosing to export goods to clients before March due to policy uncertainties following Trump's inauguration. As a result, some enterprises were still able to secure a certain number of export orders in January. However, regarding the post-holiday market situation, enterprises generally hold a pessimistic outlook.

       In contrast, small and medium-sized enterprises face a more challenging situation. They indicated that current order volumes are gradually decreasing, which is one of the reasons for their earlier holiday schedules. Additionally, when production resumes after the holiday, enterprises expect insufficient market demand, making it difficult to procure enough raw materials for production. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding the "reverse invoicing" policy will also bring additional resistance.

       III. Inventory Management and Market Outlook

       Due to uncertainties in future market expectations, copper billet enterprises stated that they would not significantly increase inventory levels during the Chinese New Year holiday but would instead maintain low levels of raw materials and finished products.

       Overall, the holiday duration for copper billet plants is generally around 10 to 16 days. At the same time, most copper billet enterprises expressed that 2025 is expected to be fraught with uncertainties, with traditional industries losing their appeal. The copper billet market in 2025 is still under resistance, with a rather pessimistic outlook.